10th November 2009, 04:29 PM
Pay deals in the UK could come under renewed pressure next year despite signs of an economic recovery, a new study has warned.
According to the Labour Research Department (LRD), a significant number of long-term pay deals are set to expire next year and this is one of several factors that will place downward pressure on salaries.
It found that one in seven deals in 2010 will be long-term arrangements, compared to one-quarter of settlements in 2009.
Lewis Emery, the LRD's pay and conditions researcher, believes a number of other factors could keep pay deals on the low side next year, despite signs of growth since April.
He said: "At least four crucial questions overshadow the chances of continuing pay growth: Will current pay freezes be lifted? What kind of pay offers will employers make with fewer long term deals setting the pace? Will Retail Price Index inflation return? And most decisively of all, what will happen with public sector pay?"
Recently, research by Incomes Data Services revealed that a third of businesses have imposed a pay freeze so far during 2009.
http://www.lrd.org.uk/issue.php?pagid=1&issueid=1345
However, averaged over the whole year, however, the picture does not look quite so bleak. From August 2008-July 2009, 30% overall received less than a 2% rise, including cuts and freezes, covering almost one-third of the workforce; however, a significant 22% (over one-fifth) of deals were for 4% or more, covering 13% of the workforce. This leaves over two-fifths (41%) of deals achieving between 2% and 3.99%, applying to almost half (49%) of workers.
So I would suggest a wait and see - Lets wait until April 2010 and see where we are as an industry, before saying freeze. I don't feel we know enough... and given that the planned return in the main VAT rate to 17.5% from January 2010 would affect us all. Continued weak or frozen wage growth would imply a squeeze on disposable incomes (which for a 15k a year - working every week! - is already non-existant) , potentially undermining prospects for consumer spending and an economic recovery in general. Accomodation? TRavel? lots to mull over. AND this is complicated.
I don't have a full handle on this yet, so perhaps the IfA could comment more on the statement
Where did this come from, as it seems to have taken up a Council Meeting, and must have origins.
According to the Labour Research Department (LRD), a significant number of long-term pay deals are set to expire next year and this is one of several factors that will place downward pressure on salaries.
It found that one in seven deals in 2010 will be long-term arrangements, compared to one-quarter of settlements in 2009.
Lewis Emery, the LRD's pay and conditions researcher, believes a number of other factors could keep pay deals on the low side next year, despite signs of growth since April.
He said: "At least four crucial questions overshadow the chances of continuing pay growth: Will current pay freezes be lifted? What kind of pay offers will employers make with fewer long term deals setting the pace? Will Retail Price Index inflation return? And most decisively of all, what will happen with public sector pay?"
Recently, research by Incomes Data Services revealed that a third of businesses have imposed a pay freeze so far during 2009.
http://www.lrd.org.uk/issue.php?pagid=1&issueid=1345
However, averaged over the whole year, however, the picture does not look quite so bleak. From August 2008-July 2009, 30% overall received less than a 2% rise, including cuts and freezes, covering almost one-third of the workforce; however, a significant 22% (over one-fifth) of deals were for 4% or more, covering 13% of the workforce. This leaves over two-fifths (41%) of deals achieving between 2% and 3.99%, applying to almost half (49%) of workers.
So I would suggest a wait and see - Lets wait until April 2010 and see where we are as an industry, before saying freeze. I don't feel we know enough... and given that the planned return in the main VAT rate to 17.5% from January 2010 would affect us all. Continued weak or frozen wage growth would imply a squeeze on disposable incomes (which for a 15k a year - working every week! - is already non-existant) , potentially undermining prospects for consumer spending and an economic recovery in general. Accomodation? TRavel? lots to mull over. AND this is complicated.
I don't have a full handle on this yet, so perhaps the IfA could comment more on the statement
Where did this come from, as it seems to have taken up a Council Meeting, and must have origins.
For really I think that the poorest he that is in England hath a life to live, as the greatest he
Thomas Rainborough 1647
Thomas Rainborough 1647