22nd January 2009, 11:08 AM
The sample is all FAME & RAOs a total of 94 organisations of which 2/3 replied ie 69. This represents about 2000 actual employees or half the commercial archaeology work force. As a sample this is as good as it gets.
The number of job losses in the sample is 8.6% of the companies surveyed.
I would calculate the total job lossed slighly differently to the IFA. The total number of people employed in archaeology is ESTIMATED to be 4023 in Aug 2007. If the percentage change is calculated for the sample 72 people or 1.8% a total estimate for the number of people employed in Oct 2008 of 3950. With a 8.9% reduction from Oct 2008 to Jan 2009 this gives a total of 351 people made redundant in the last quarter which is slightly less than the IFA total.
I have not got access to the FAME & RAO list but given that the worst hit are the companies employing 50+ people and I suspect most if not all of these are RAO or Fame members the IFA estimates are an over estimate.
If the total number employed has increased by 20% from 2002 to 2007 this represents an increase of 650 jobs over that period and thus more people are still employed in archaeology that they were in 2002.
I would note that the summer of 2007 was a very high period of demand for archaeologists and there were all sorts of complaints for about the use of inexperienced archaeologists.
Anybody involved in contracts over the last 7 years will know there has been a year on year increase in demand in the construction industry until last year. Now there is a period of adjustment. The issue to my mind is what will the level of demand be once the recession lifts. Will we have a sudden increase in demand due to pent up demand in the housing market or will the increase be more gradual?
Peter Wardle
Peter
The number of job losses in the sample is 8.6% of the companies surveyed.
I would calculate the total job lossed slighly differently to the IFA. The total number of people employed in archaeology is ESTIMATED to be 4023 in Aug 2007. If the percentage change is calculated for the sample 72 people or 1.8% a total estimate for the number of people employed in Oct 2008 of 3950. With a 8.9% reduction from Oct 2008 to Jan 2009 this gives a total of 351 people made redundant in the last quarter which is slightly less than the IFA total.
I have not got access to the FAME & RAO list but given that the worst hit are the companies employing 50+ people and I suspect most if not all of these are RAO or Fame members the IFA estimates are an over estimate.
If the total number employed has increased by 20% from 2002 to 2007 this represents an increase of 650 jobs over that period and thus more people are still employed in archaeology that they were in 2002.
I would note that the summer of 2007 was a very high period of demand for archaeologists and there were all sorts of complaints for about the use of inexperienced archaeologists.
Anybody involved in contracts over the last 7 years will know there has been a year on year increase in demand in the construction industry until last year. Now there is a period of adjustment. The issue to my mind is what will the level of demand be once the recession lifts. Will we have a sudden increase in demand due to pent up demand in the housing market or will the increase be more gradual?
Peter Wardle
Peter